Prediction model for cacao production integrated into an offline mobile application: the impact of artificial intelligence on agricultural decision-making.

Chuqui Alcivar, Dennis Brishith; Torres Jimenez, Alex Joel

Prediction model for cacao production integrated into an offline mobile application: the impact of artificial intelligence on agricultural decision-making.

dc.contributor.advisor	Borja Borja, Cristian Darwin
dc.contributor.advisor	Bajaña Zajia, Johnny Xavier
dc.contributor.author	Chuqui Alcivar, Dennis Brishith
dc.contributor.author	Torres Jimenez, Alex Joel
dc.date.accessioned	2025-10-08T15:59:31Z
dc.date.available	2025-10-08T15:59:31Z
dc.date.issued	2025-10-08
dc.description.abstract	Cacao production, a key economic pillar for numerous rural communities in Ecuador, faces structural challenges related to climate variability and limited digital connectivity. This study presents the development and implementation of a yield prediction model based on the XGBoost algorithm, integrated into an offline mobile application designed to operate in agricultural environments without internet access. The research followed the CRISP-DM methodology and included the analysis of 5584 observations collected from plots in La Maná (Cotopaxi), corresponding to three cacao genotypes. Variables were processed using cleaning, imputation, and normalization techniques. The predictive model, validated with standard metrics (MSE, RMSE) and an R² of 0.9399, demonstrated robust fit and high interpretability. Subsequently, the model was deployed in a mobile app developed with React Native. Field deployment showed response times under five seconds, compatibility with low-end devices, and high user acceptance. Participatory validation confirmed the practical usefulness of the tool for real-time agronomic decision-making. This work provides evidence of the value of AI tailored to rural contexts and proposes a replicable approach for other value chains under similar conditions.
dc.format.extent	1-7
dc.identifier.citation	Chuqui Alcívar, D. B., & Torres Jiménez, A. J. (2025). Modelo de predicción de la producción de cacao integrado en una aplicación móvil offline: El impacto de la inteligencia artificial en la toma de decisiones agrícolas. [Artículo académico]. Universidad Técnica de Cotopaxi, Extensión La Maná.
dc.identifier.issn	UTC-XLM-SIS-2025-012-ART
dc.identifier.uri	https://repositorio.utc.edu.ec/handle/123456789/15048
dc.language.iso	en
dc.publisher	Ecuador: La Maná: Universidad Técnica de Cotopaxi; Extensión La Maná, Carrera de Sistemas de Información
dc.subject	MACHINE LEARNING
dc.subject	XGBOOST
dc.subject	SMART AGRICULTURE
dc.subject	CRISP-DM
dc.subject	DATASET
dc.title	Prediction model for cacao production integrated into an offline mobile application: the impact of artificial intelligence on agricultural decision-making.
dc.type	Preprint